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2023 Oscars Predictions - Screenplay Categories

Updated: Mar 12, 2023



The Oscars are only days away and as a screenwriting blog, we are of course particularly eager to present you with our predictions for both the original and the adapted screenplay categories. This year has been like few others and with the Writers Guild of America giving the last big awards before the Oscars we are looking upon two very close races that could both present upsets. Let‘s kick things off with a look at this year's best original screenplay category.


Original Screenplay


Everything Everywhere all at once

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Triangle of Sadness

Tár


In Original Screenplay, The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere all at once are locked in a tight race. Martin McDonagh was able to get an early award lead by winning the sole screenplay category at the Golden Globes award in their live television comeback after being plagued by scandals. The Critics' Choice Awards and their set of newly added online-critics voters handed one award after another to The Daniels, including Best Original screenplay. Banshees was then able to defeat EEAAO at the baftas. But the win has to be taken with caution when looking at its importance since the British Academy tends to favor British films or in this case a film by British creators.

A few days ago, the WGA finally announced EEAAO as their winner for best original screenplay, but the win tells us little about what to expect on Sunday Night since The Banshees of Inisherin‘s screenplay was deemed ineligible by the guild. Anyway, if The Daniels had lost the WGA award to a contender like Tár, then The Banshees of Inisherin would be a safe bet for the Oscar. Now, the two most acclaimed screenplays of 2022 are locked in a tight race that, as we believe it, will see Martin McDonaugh take home his first-ever Oscar. An upset by films like Tár or Triangle of Sadness seems highly unlikely at this point.


Adapted Screenplay


All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Living

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking


The situation in the adapted screenplay category almost eerily mirrors the original screenplay race. Sarah Polley’s Women Talking and the German anti-war epic All Quiet on the Western Front are head-to-head in what could be one of the most difficult choices of the year for academy voters.

Sarah Polley took home the critics choice award and the WGA for adapted screenplay, but similarly to Banshees in original screenplay, All Quiet wasn‘t in the running for the guild‘s award. If you look at the big award shows, you’ll find that it was only nominated at the Baftas. An award won without much trouble since it also took home six other Baftas that night, including best film and best director for Edward Berger. Many critics argue that Women Talking features better and more unique writing, but All Quiet on the Western Front was able to secure nine Oscar nominations, a record for a foreign language film. Women Talking has only one other nomination apart from adapted screenplay (best picture) speaking for itself. We will have to see if the academy‘s love for All Quiet can pull it to the top when the voters choose to give it awards in other categories and decide to hone Sarah Polley‘s excellent work instead. The only other possible contender would be Kazuo Ishiguro‘s screenplay for Living since it barely missed any nominations throughout this awards season. Our prediction is… Well, we can‘t make up our minds, but after winning at the WGA Awards, Women Talking might just be able to edge out All Quiet on the Western Front.


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